Comprehensive onshore wind energy assessment in Malawi based on the WRF downscaling with ERA5 reanalysis data, optimal site selection, and energy production

Abstract

Malawi, despite its minimal CO2 emissions, faces huge climate impacts and a low electrification rate. Recognizing these challenges, this study presents a comprehensive and nationwide assessment of Malawi's wind energy potential, leveraging the high-resolution capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike most site-specific studies, this study covers the entire country, factoring in different turbine hub heights. Through sensitivity analysis, the optimal configuration for the WRF model in Malawi was determined and ERA5 reanalysis data was used for initial and boundary conditions. The study's findings were validated using MERRA-2 reanalysis and actual observational datasets. A combination of GIS and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was employed, integrating key factors like land use and topographical complexity to determine optimal wind farm sites. Notably, the wind suitability map uncovered significant potential for wind farm development. Furthermore, in the evaluation of a 50 MW wind farm, 80 m hub heights consistently outperformed 100 m elevations, both technically and economically. An 80 m wind farm at Site A can potentially power up to 32,931 urban and 84,475 rural households. Economically, 80 m hub heights showcased lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) values and faster payback periods than 100 m ones. Furthermore, these proposed wind projects can markedly reduce CO2 emissions, positioning Malawi in tandem with global sustainability aspirations. Overall, this study provides a key foundation for Malawi's renewable energy strategies, highlighting the potential for improved electrification and better climate change mitigation outcomes.