Comprehensive functional data analysis of China’s dynamic energy security index

Abstract

In the transition towards a cleaner and more sustainable global energy production and consumption, the energy security index (ESI) is an integral deciding factor for many countries. In this paper, the dynamics of China’s energy security index is constructed and analyzed using comprehensive functional data analysis (FDA) techniques. The energy security indices of 30 provinces in China between 2004 and 2017 are considered. The effect of investment (in energy sector) on energy security of the provinces is also checked using functional regression models. The average ESI for Shanxi (0.64737), Inner Mongolia (0.64540), and Shaanxi (0.51039), and the energy investment in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Shanxi form the top 10% of all the provinces considered. Exploratory analysis shows that there was an overall decrease in ESI in most of the provinces between 2004 and 2017, despite an increase in the investment in energy sectors of these provinces in the same period. The functional regression models show that investment in energy sector achieved its highest positive effect on energy security between year 2010 and 2014.