Abstract
The main purposes of this study are to analyse the evaluation of tailings dam stability under multiple factors and prevent accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. The evaluation model combining the TOPSIS model and bow tie model is presented in this paper. Firstly, a new formula was adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights and the theory of the TOPSIS model was introduced. Secondly, taking a uranium tailings reservoir in south China as an example, the index values and constant weights of the 10 dams are determined according to eight aspects of accumulating dam crest elevation, dam slope, mechanical properties, seepage capacity, topographical conditions, flood control capacity, rainstorm resistance capacity and earthquake resistance capacity. Thirdly, the fitting degree between the stability and ideal solution of each dam is calculated by using the TOPSIS model. The stability fitting degree of the 10 dams is 76%, 93%, 82%, 90%, 66%, 79%, 85%, 96%, 32%, 89% in sequence. This result shows that among the 10 dams, the 9# dam ranks the lowest in stability. The actual results are in good consistency with those calculated by the TOPSIS model, which can provide a scientific and reliable new idea for the safety of other multi-index comprehensive evaluations. It is worth mentioning that it can still maintain high accuracy of dam stability evaluation under multiple indexes and multiple dams. Also, the comprehensive evaluation model proposed in this paper can more effectively reflect the subtle differences between similar evaluation objects. Fourthly, safety barriers from both the cause of the accident and the consequences was established by using the bow tie model to block the path of the accident, and to propose safety measures to make the evaluation system more complete.
Highlights
In recent years, the number of tailings ponds in China has increased rapidly with the booming mining industry
Determination of weight based on variable weight theory
The fitting degree results obtained by the evaluation model are compared with the traditional safety coefficient which are calculated via the relevant data of the uranium tailings pond
Summary
The number of tailings ponds in China has increased rapidly with the booming mining industry. There are many tailings reservoirs storing radioactive materials in China. The uranium content in uranium tailings is from 4 to 10 times higher than in the natural background in the general soil, and life of a nuclide in more than 1000 years accounts for about 30% [2,3]. With the increase of uranium tailings ponds, the corresponding environmental pollution problems are becoming more and more serious [5], and the attention is getting higher and higher socially. It can be seen that ensuring safety and reliability of uranium tailings ponds is of great significance to the safety of people’s lives and property and the sustainable development of the ecological environment
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