Composite risk index: the new Safety Performance Indicator of risk exposure

Tamara Pejovic,K Stamoulis,A Plioutsias,H Karakoc,M Papanikou,A Apostolidis

doi:10.1051/matecconf/202031401007

Abstract

Conceptually, all safety programmes desire accurate safety risk quantification in order to provide a meaningful expression of risk. As there are typically, multiple safety risks associated with a system or event, the quantification of total safety risk is a major challenge. One possible way to define and accept the total safety risk of any system is using the concept of a composite risk estimate. This paper represents development of the new safety performance indicator and overall methodology that could be used to measure the performance of European ATM systems as a whole and its individual entities. It describes the computation of the Composite Risk Index (CRI), logic behind it, its use (on the example EUROCONTROL Member States) and limitations and areas of potential improvement. CRI represents a cumulative risk value calculated aggregating all reported, assessed and severity classified key safety-related incidents to form an index. This measure of risk exposure is based on probability and severity that considers the human perception of equivalent risk. Overall idea behind CRI is that the performance of safety system can be analysed within three important broad categories: the quality of reporting system with reporting entity, measured risks within the system, and human perception of risk.

Highlights

Risk is the potential for mishaps or other adverse variation in the cost, schedule, or safety performance of Air Traffic Management (ATM) system
Using methodology described in previous section, the Composite Risk Index (CRI) for all EUROCONTROL Member States for 2018 is calculated and shown at Figure 2
Figure 3. shows that the States with a higher number of reports, which could indicate a good reporting culture, tend to have a low CRI normalised. 2.1 CRI trend Using CRI index, it is possible to follow the trend of safety performance, as CRI can be used as a quick indicator of the status of either safety performance based on the type and severity of historical reported occurrences and as indicator of reporting culture

Summary

Introduction

Risk is the potential for mishaps or other adverse variation in the cost, schedule, or safety performance of ATM system. Safety risk can be explained as the potential for mishaps that could result in injury, fatality, equipment or system damage or total loss. As there are typically multiple safety risks associated with a system or event, the quantification of total safety risk is a major challenge. Current methods of obtaining this composite risk estimate use summing techniques to add the individual risks and produce a single number [1, 2]. That makes the additive computation of risk difficult or impossible

Methods

Results

Conclusion