Composite adaptability index to evaluate climate change adaptation policies for urban transport

Abstract

The uncontrolled expansion of human-made structures is creating more impervious urban areas. These changes, coupled with extreme rainfalls and inadequate flood channelling infrastructure, lead to urban flooding. The urban transport sector is at constant risk from urban flooding, and it should adapt to these climate change effects. This study focuses on developing an indicator-based approach called composite adaptability index (CAI) to assess the urban transportation system's adaptability to urban flooding based on exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. The weights of the indicators are estimated using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the consistency tests are conducted to assess the efficiency of the weights. The index is tested on three adaptation policy bundles designed to improve the urban transportation system's resiliency compared to the Business as usual scenario for the years 2030 and 2050 in Bangalore, India. Testing of CAI showed that all the adaptation bundles showed increased adaptability. Overall, bundle 1 gave the best CAI results with 0.662 and 0.660 for 2030 and 2050, respectively and a 2% gain from the BAU scenario.