Complex Fluctuation of Power Price in Dual-Channel and Multienergy Supply Chain Based on Sticky Expectation

Abstract

According to the current power supply focused reform in China, a dual-channel and multienergy supply chain model is constructed. The supply chain has a new energy enterprise, a traditional energy enterprise, and the State Grid that is the retailer. New energy company and traditional energy company sell electricity to the State Grid at wholesale prices, and at the same time they enter the market to retail power products. Multiequilibriums and their practical significance are discussed. The complex dynamic is investigated using a bifurcation diagram, Lyapunov exponent, parameter basin, and fractal dimension. In this multilayer supply chain network, the price adjustment of the State Grid will make the entire supply chain face greater volatility risks, and dual-channel suppliers, that is, new energy and traditional energy companies are also involved in this volatility. Further, considering the sticky information, the sticky expectation of electricity price is built for studying the lagging electricity price. The dynamic characteristics of the sticky model are investigated, and new phenomena are discovered: 3-orbit bifurcation and mutation appear with fractals. This means that prices continue to swing and oscillate on three tracks. Through comparison of the fractal dimension, an important conclusion is discovered: the purpose of sticky expectations for electricity prices is to stabilize price fluctuations, but sticky expectations make the market more complicated. The article provides a strategic reference for exploring the power market in China.