Complex adaptive systems engineering and risk reduction

Abstract

Complex adaptive systems are central to many persistent problems locally and globally. In cases where the effects of a policy play out slowly and propagate through interdependencies with other systems, the broader view and understanding gained from complex adaptive system analyses allow us to recognise the causal relationships involved and solve persistent system-level issues. This is particularly true with the risks due to climate change, economic crises, energy disruptions and food insecurity. Climate change and the challenge of addressing the resulting global risks provides a common set of problems on which to build a global community of practice that utilises earth systems' engineering approaches and sustainability goals to understand and resolve problems in complex adaptive systems of systems. Structural adaptation under environmental stress, simple rules for entity interactions and condition-dependent behaviours are key attributes of complex systems. These attributes provide the means for creating models that behave the way the real system does and for the same reasons, improving understanding and designing effective solutions. This paper presents general concepts for infrastructure adaptation and examples of successful applications of an expanded engineering process for complex systems of systems.