Abstract
This article studies Russian military strategy, concepts and capabilities as we find them today and as we are projected to find them in 10 to 15 years and explores potential weaknesses in Russian military power. In this light, it scrutinises defence efforts made by NATO and its key allies and makes an assessment of military strategies and concepts to deter and, if needed, to deal with Russian action in the High North of Europe. The article applies a net assessment and competitive strategies approach, entailing study of Russian, Norwegian and NATO ends and concepts. Within this framework, the study discusses Norwegian response options, arguing that Russia’s layered defence in the European High North can be effectively deterred and defeated. This requires investment, firstly, in capabilities which both mitigate Norwegian and NATO weakness and offer the possibility of exploiting Russian weaknesses, and, secondly, in prudent and suitable strategies and operational concepts.
Highlights
In the event of a high-intensity war with Russia, parts of the European High North risk being isolated from the West behind Russia’s layered defence.1 Russian so-called Anti-Access/AreaDenial (A2/AD) capabilities such as long-range missiles, submarines, and modern air-defence systems form the cornerstone of an integrated and layered defence
Norway should adopt a defensive concept that primarily mitigates risks in the initial phases of a conflict. Resources such as P-8 and F-35 aircraft can be integrated as part of an overall campaign to either degrade Russian forward-deployed systems through attrition, or to enhance NATO sea and air control in the Norwegian Sea
Based on the analysis presented in this article, competitiveness between NATO and Russia resides, and will reside, in at least three partly related areas
Summary
In the event of a high-intensity war with Russia, parts of the European High North risk being isolated from the West behind Russia’s layered defence.1 Russian so-called Anti-Access/AreaDenial (A2/AD) capabilities such as long-range missiles, submarines, and modern air-defence systems form the cornerstone of an integrated and layered defence. An important and classic question is the extent to which NATO or key allies should put pressure on Russia by moving substantial forces forward, into the northern parts of the Norwegian Sea and up to the Bear gap, or whether it would be better to plan for a more defensive campaign.
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