Comparison of the Validity of the PRE-DELIRIC model and the E-PRE-DELIRIC model for Predicting Delirium in patients after Cardiac Surgery

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze the validity of the PRE-DELIRIC model and E-PRE-DELIRIC model.Methods: Patients who underwent cardiac surgery at a tertiary hospital between January 2019 and December 2022 were included. The presence or absence of delirium was determined based on risk groups, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power, and negative predictive power were verified using the Youden index. Receiver operating characteristic curves were derived for the PRE-DELIRIC model and E-PRE-DELIRIC model, the area under the curve was calculated, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was presented.Results: The incidence of delirium was 28.8%. The average scores of the PRE-DELIRIC model and E-PRE-DELIRIC model were 49.72±29.91 and 18.14±0.41, respectively. In the PRE-DELIRIC model, for which a cut-off point of 14.05 was established using the Youden index, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power, and negative predictive power were 64.8%, 83.2%, 61.0%, and 85.4%, respectively. In the E-PRE-DELIRIC model, with a cut-off point of 64.01, the corresponding indicators were 73.1%, 51.5%, 37.8%, and 82.6%, respectively. The areas under the curve for the PRE-DELIRIC model and the E-PRE-DELIRIC model were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74~0.82) and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61~0.69), respectively.Conclusion: It may be helpful to use both the E-PRE-DELIRIC and PRE-DELIRIC models. The two prediction models are expected to help improve the quality of nursing for the early detection and prevention of delirium, enabling intensive observations and interventions for patients at high risk of delirium.