Comparison of the performance of two general and three specific scoring systems for meningococcal septic shock in children.

Abstract

To evaluate the performance at admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of five severity scores, two general (the Pediatric Risk of Mortality [PRISM] II and III scores) and three specific for meningococcal septic shock (Leclerc, Glasgow Meningococcal Septicemia Prognostic Score [GMSPS], and Gedde-Dahl's MOC score) in children with this condition. Multicenter, retrospective, cohort study. The PICUs from four tertiary centers. Patients were 192 children ranging in age from 1 month to 14 yrs consecutively admitted to the participating PICUs during a period of 12 yrs and 6 months (January 1983 to June 1995), who were diagnosed with presumed or confirmed meningococcal septic shock. Patients with a length of stay <2 hrs were excluded from the study. Clinical and laboratory data gathered during the first 2 hrs after admission were used to compute the scoring systems tested. There were 66 deaths (34%). Neisseria meningitidis was cultured from 142 (74%) children. GMSPS and PRISM II provided the best discriminative capability, as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SEM): 0.816 (0.036) and 0.803 (0.041), respectively. The other three scores gave lower receiver operating characteristic areas: PRISM III = 0.777 (0.043), MOC = 0.775 (0.037), and Leclerc = 0.661 (0.045). There was a statistically significant difference between the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of GMSPS and Leclerc (p < .01) but not between the GMSPS and the remaining three scores. All five scores presented good calibration with no significant differences between observed and predicted mortality (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). The specific GMSPS and the general pediatric severity system PRISM II performed better than the other three scores, being appropriate tools to assess severity of illness at admission to the PICU in children with presumed meningococcal septic shock.