Comparison of simulated changes of climate in Asia for two scenarios: Early Miocene to present, and present to future enhanced greenhouse

Abstract

We use a climate model (GENESIS) to simulate the changes in climate associated with two scenarios, one from the past and one from the future, with a focus on the Asian continent. The two scenarios are: (1) Early Miocene to Present—a period of uplift of the Himalayan–Tibetan plateau and of decreasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and (2) Present to Future Enhanced Greenhouse—a period of increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the past climate scenario, the combination of uplift and decreased concentration of greenhouse gas causes the model to simulate widespread cooling and, primarily due to the effect of uplift, greatly increased precipitation in southern Asia and decreased precipitation in northern Asia. In the future climate scenario, the increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide causes the model to simulate widespread warming and, by comparison with the past climate scenario, relatively small changes in precipitation; the changes are generally towards increased precipitation, except in parts of northern China. The output of the climate model, along with the changed concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, is also used to calculate changes in biome distributions. Owing to the high concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide in both the past and future scenarios, relative to present, the simulations of Early Miocene biomes and Future biomes are somewhat similar—and both are very unlike the Present.