Comparison of Satellite-Based and Ångström–Prescott Estimated Global Horizontal Irradiance under Different Cloud Cover Conditions in South African Locations

Abstract

The study compares the performance of satellite-based datasets and the Ångström–Prescott (AP) model in estimating the daily global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for stations in South Africa. The daily GHI from four satellites (namely SOLCAST, CAMS, NASA SSE, and CMSAF SARAH) and the Ångström–Prescott (AP) model are evaluated by validating them against ground observation data from eight radiometric stations located in all six macro-climatological regions of South Africa, for the period 2014-19. The evaluation is carried out under clear-sky, all-sky, and overcast-sky conditions. CLAAS-2 cloud fractional coverage data are used to determine clear and overcast sky days. The observed GHI data are first quality controlled using the Baseline Surface Radiation Network methodology and then quality control of the HelioClim model. The traditional statistical benchmarks, namely the relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) provided information about the performance of the datasets. Under clear skies, the estimated datasets showed excellent performance with maximum rMBE, rMAE, and rRMSE less than 6.5% and a minimum R2 of 0.97. In contrast, under overcast-sky conditions there was noticeably poor performance with maximum rMBE (24%), rMAE (29%), rRMSE (39%), and minimum R2 (0.74). For all-sky conditions, good correlation was found for SOLCAST (0.948), CMSAF (0.948), CAMS (0.944), and AP model (0.91); all with R2 over 0.91. The maximum rRMSE for SOLCAST (10%), CAMS (12%), CMSAF (12%), and AP model (11%) was less than 13%. The maximum rMAE for SOLCAST (7%), CAMS (8%), CMSAF (8%), and AP model (9%) was less than 10%, showing good performance. While the R2 correlations for the NASA SSE satellite-based GHI were less than 0.9 (0.896), the maximum rRMSE was 18% and the maximum rMAE was 15%, showing rather poor performance. The performance of the SOLCAST, CAMS, CMSAF, and AP models was almost the same in the study area. CAMS, CMSAF, and AP models are viable, freely available datasets for estimating the daily GHI at South African locations with quantitative certainty. The relatively poor performance of the NASA SSE datasets in the study area could be attributed to their low spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° (~55 km × 55 km). The feasibility of the datasets decreased significantly as the proportion of sky that was covered by clouds increased. The results of the study could provide a basis/data for further research to correct biases between in situ observations and the estimated GHI datasets using machine learning algorithms.