Abstract
Construction projects planned using deterministic method suffers from delay caused by uncertainties that are not considered in advance when determining activity durations. Probabilistic method offers an alternative to consider such uncertainties using PERT. Several studies on PERT however, proved that PERT results underestimated the project duration mean and overestimated the project duration variance. In 2017, PERT was developed into M-PERT. This study aims to compare project duration obtained from both the PERT and M-PERT with project duration obtained from Monte Carlo simulation software. Results of PERT and M-PERT on the same network model showed that M-PERT produced smaller value of project duration variance compared to PERT at the same equal value of project duration mean. M-PERT also produced project duration with RMSE value towards the simulation results of 0.0001818. This value is smaller compared to PERT’s RMSE value towards the simulation results of 0.0053961. This shows that M-PERT is able to produce results that are closer to computer simulation results compared to PERT. This study suggests that a probabilistic scheduling software which operates according to M-PERT principles should be developed in order for M-PERT to be completely utilized in actual construction projects.
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