Comparison of M Estimation, S Estimation, with MM Estimation to Get the Best Estimation of Robust Regression in Criminal Cases in Indonesia

Malecita Nur Atala Singgih,Achmad Fauzan

doi:10.20956/j.v18i2.18630

Malecita Nur Atala Singgih, Achmad Fauzan

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v18i2.18630

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Abstract

Crime incidents that occurred in Indonesia in 2019 based on Survey Based Data on criminal data sourced from the National Socio-Economic Survey and Village Potential Data Collection produced by the Central Statistics Agency recorded 269,324 cases. The high crime rate is caused by several factors, including poverty and population density. Determination of the most influential factors in criminal acts in Indonesia can be done with Regression Analysis. One method of Regression Analysis that is very commonly used is the Least Square Method. However, Regression Analysis can be used if the assumption test is met. If outliers are found, then the assumption test is not completed. The outlier problem can be overcome by using a robust estimation method. This study aims to determine the best estimation method between Maximum Likelihood Type (M) estimation, Scale (S) estimation, and Method of Moment (MM) estimation on Robust Regression. The best estimate of Robust Regression is the smallest Residual Standard Error (RSE) value and the largest Adjusted R-square. The analysis of case studies of criminal acts in Indonesia in 2019 showed that the best estimate was the S estimate with an RSE value of 4226 and an Adjusted R-square of 0.98

Highlights

AND PRELIMINARIESA crime is when a person commits an act that is prohibited and is against the law
Based on Survey Based Data on criminal data sourced from the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) and the Village Potential Data Collection (PODES) produced by the Central Agency on Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
The data used is data on criminal acts in Indonesia in 2019. This data is surveybased secondary data sourced from the National Socio-Economics Survey (SUSENAS) and the Village Potential data collection (Podes) produced by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS)

Summary

Introduction

A crime is when a person commits an act that is prohibited and is against the law. Criminal acts can be interpreted as all forms of prohibited actions and have been regulated in applicable law. Anyone who violates the prohibition that has been regulated in applicable law can be threatened with a criminal [9]. The incidence of criminal acts that occurred in Indonesia in 2019 was recorded at 269,324 cases. Based on these data, out of 100,000 people in Indonesia, 103 of them are at risk of being hit by a crime; within 1 minute 57 seconds, there is one criminal act that occurred [4]

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