Abstract
Indonesia is an agricultural country with the majority of the people making rice which is then processed product of rice as a staple food. However, in the last few years, rice production in Indonesia has decreased. Rice production data with influencing factors, namely, rice harvest area, land area affected by plant pests (OPT), rainfall, the population in Indonesia have outliers and have residuals that are not normally distributed so that regression analysis with the least-squares method cannot be used to estimate the amount of rice production. A robust regression model with Method of Moments (MM) estimation is used to solve outlier problems and violations of normality assumptions. This study aims to determine the robust MM estimation regression model to estimate rice production in Indonesia and determine the factors that significantly influence. The robust regression model of MM estimation on rice production in Indonesia shows that the increase in the amount of harvested area , the land area is exposed to plant pests (OPT) and the population will increase the amount of rice production, while the rainfall will reduce the amount of rice production with a high level of confidence. The variable harvested land area and the population has a significant effect on the amount of rice production. Based on the results obtained, it is hoped that there will be policies that consider factors that influence rice production to increase the amount of rice production in Indonesia.
Highlights
The staple food of Indonesian people is rice, the rice plant becomes the most promising agricultural sector
The data used is in the form of data on the amount of rice production, the area of harvested land, the area of land affected by the pest attack, rainfall, and the number of population in Indonesia in 2019 in each province and using robust regression MM estimation for modeling rice plant production in Indonesia during 2019
Data on the amount of rice production is used as the dependent variable while the area of harvested land, the area of land affected by the pest attack, rainfall, and the number of population is used as the independent variable
Summary
The staple food of Indonesian people is rice, the rice plant becomes the most promising agricultural sector. The average rate of rice consumption per capita in Indonesia is 111.58 kilograms each year. The average rate of rice consumption per capita in Indonesia is 111.58 kilograms each year (Timorria, 2019). The rice plant production in Indonesia during 2019 decrease by 2,63 million tons compared to the previous year (Badan Pusat Statistik,2020). Many factors can affect the amount of rice plant production. The rice plant production can decrease if the area's harvest is low that can be caused by an attack by plant-disturbing organisms (OPT). It turns out that rainfall can affect rice plant production. The higher the total population, the higher the demand for staple food which can trigger more rice production. The conversion of agricultural land into residential land possibly happen
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