Comparison of GARCH and SVRGARCH models: Example of gold return

Abstract

Gold has been a precious resource for people on earth from the past to the present. It is used as both a value gain and jewelry, and is the focus of interest for people in terms of receiving attention and protecting its value. Especially recently, it has been the most favorite for investors due to its excess value increase and decrease which is constantly monitored. The study aimed to compare the predictive performance of the gold price return using the Support Vector Regression-GARCH hybrid models combined with the traditional volatility models. It has been examined whether the Support Vector Regression GARCH models would increase foresight performance. The study used data on the daily frequency between 01/01/2010–01/04/2023. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Variable Variance, Glosten-Jaganthan-Runkle GARCH, Exponential GARCH and hybrid model Support Vector Regression -GARCH are utilized as prediction methods. For all methods, the gold series is divided into two groups as training and test data. The Root Mean Square Error values are compared as a model performance criterion. The RMSE values and graphics outputs have been concluded that the Support Vector Regression-GARCH model based on predicted linear, radial-based and polynomial kernel predicts more effectively than the GARCH models.