Comparison of different prognostic scores in estimating short- and long-term mortality in COVID-19 patients above 60years old in a university hospital in Belgium.

Abstract

Multiple scoring systems were used for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients. The objective was to determine among 6 scores which performed the best in predicting short-and long-term mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients ≥ 60years. An observational, retrospective cohort study conducted between 21/10/2020 and 20/01/2021. 6 scores were calculated (Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), 4C Mortality Score (4CMS), NEWS score (NEWS), quick-SOFA score (qSOFA), and Quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI)). We included unvaccinated hospitalized patients with COVID-19 ≥ 60years old in Brugmann hospital, detected by PCR and/or suggestive CT thorax images. Old and nosocomial infections, and patients admitted immediately at the intensive care unit were excluded. 199 patients were included, mean age was 76.2years (60-99). 47.2% were female. 56 patients (28%) died within 1year after the first day of hospitalization. The 4CMS predicted the best intrahospital, 30days and 6months mortality, with area under the ROC curve (AUROC) 0.695 (0.58-0.81), 0.76 (0.65-0.86) and 0.72 (0.63-0.82) respectively. The CCI came right after with respectively AUROC of 0.69 (0.59-0.79), 0.74 (0.65-0.83) and 0.71 (0.64-0.8). To predict mortality at 12months after hospitalization, the CCI had the highest AUROC with 0.77 (0.69-0.85), before the 4CMS with 0.69 (0.60-0.79). Among 6 scores, the 4CMS was the best to predict intrahospital, 30-day and 6-month mortality. To predict mortality at 12months, CCI had the best performance before 4CMS. This reflects the importance of considering comorbidities for short- and long-term mortality after COVID 19. This study was approved by the ethical committee of Brugmann University Hospital (reference CE 2020/228).