Evaluating frailty may complement APACHE II in estimating mortality in elderly patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery

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ObjectiveTo analyze whether frailty can improve the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery. DesignProspective, observational, 6-month follow-up study of a cohort of patients admitted to the ICU between June 1, 2018, and June 1, 2019. SettingSurgical ICU of a third level hospital. PatientsSeries of successive patients older than 70 years who were admitted to the ICU immediately after a surgical intervention on the digestive system. 92 patients were included and 2 were excluded due to loss of follow-up at 6 months. InterventionsUpon admission to the ICU, severity and prognosis were assessed by APACHE II, and fragility by the Clinical Frailty Scale and the modified Frailty Index. Main variables of interestICU, in-hospital and 6-month mortality. ResultsThe model that best predicts mortality in the ICU is the APACHE II, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89 and a good calibration. The model that combines APACHE II and Clinical Frailty Scale is the one that best predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.82), significantly improving the prediction of isolated APACHE II (AUC: 0.78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0.04). Frailty is a predictor of mortality at 6 months, being the model that combines Clinical Frailty Scale and Frailty Index the one that has shown the greatest discrimination (AUC: 0.84). ConclusionsFrailty can complement APACHE II by improving its prediction of hospital mortality. Furthermore, it offers a good prediction of mortality 6 months after surgery. For mortality in ICU, frailty loses its predictive power, whereas isolated APACHE II shows excellent predictive capacity.