Comparison of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 in Simulating Diurnal Cloud Cycle

Abstract

Cloud dynamics and their response to future climate change continue to present a significant source of uncertainty in climate predictions. Besides the average cloud properties, the diurnal cloud cycle (DCC) exerts a substantial influence on Earth’s energy balance by reflecting solar radiation during the daytime and continuously absorbing and reemitting longwave radiation throughout the whole day. Previous studies have demonstrated that climate models exhibit certain discrepancies in simulating the DCC; however, less research attention has been paid to the patterns of these DCC biases and their impacts on modeling the Earth’s energy balance. Here, we employ satellite data to compare DCC patterns in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their latest versions in CMIP6 at both regional and global scales. We found that some of the latest climate models tend to have larger DCC biases when using satellite observations as the references, and the radiative effects due to DCC changes account for nearly 50% of the changes in total cloud radiative effects (CREs), suggesting that the DCC biases play a significant role in modelingthe global energy budget. We therefore call for improving cloud parameterization schemes with particular attention to their diurnal cycle to reduce their impacts on future climate projections.