Abstract
Climate change is a significant change in weather or in its variability in a long period. This change could be in the average of temperature, rainfall, humidity, weather patterns, wind, and sunlight and so on. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCMs) have been developed to simulate current climate of the planet and are able to predict future climate change of the Earth. In this paper the performance of CGCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and HadCM3 models in estimating the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation of the Taleghan basin were studied. The results show that despite relatively acceptable performance of all three models in temperature modeling, it seems that the outputs of HadCM3 model for this basin are more desirable when compared with CGCM3 and CSIRO MK3 models and it is can be said that HadCM3 seems to be more reliable for this basin.
Highlights
Climate change is irreversible change in the average of weather conditions which occurs in a region
Root mean square deviation (RMSD) or root mean square error (RMSE) is a common measuring criterion that is calculated from the difference between the predicted values by model or estimator and the observed data
Comparison of long-term average of the results of CSIRO Mk3 and CGM 3 models with the observational dada indicates that both models were able to estimate the general trend of rainfall in the basin, there was a dramatic difference between calculated and the long-term average of basin
Summary
Climate change is irreversible change in the average of weather conditions which occurs in a region. Some researchers consider the increase of greenhouse gases as the most important factor for gradual rise in global and oceanic temperatures. Global warming of the Earth caused two important phenomena in recent century: increase in average global temperature and increase in sea level while even small changes in hydrological variables can lead to considerable changes in water resources, climate change has a considerable influence on precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff in regional and local scales [3]. SRES defines four main emission scenarios as A1, A2, B1 and B2 to describe the relation between the emission of greenhouse gases and suspended particles in the atmosphere and their effects on different parts of the world during the 21st century These scenarios have been developed based on emission factors of greenhouse gases such as population, economy, industry, energy, agriculture and land use [13]. The output of these models from Data Distribution Center (DDC) is available which was established based on the proposal of task group on data and scenario support for impact and climate analysis (TGICA) in 1998 [1]
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