Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models

Abstract

Identification and assessment of climate change in the next decades with the aim of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects are quite necessary. In this study, maximum temperature changes of Iran were comparatively examined in two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2099) and based on the two general circulation model outputs (CGCM3 and HADCM3) and under existing emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1 and B2). For this purpose, after examining the ability of statistical downscaling method of SDSM in simulation of the observational period (1981-2010), the daily maximum temperature of future decades was downscaled by considering the uncertainty in seven synoptic stations as representatives of climate in Iran. In uncertainty analysis related to model-scenarios, it was found that CGCM3 model under scenario B1 had the best performance about the simulation of future maximum temperature among all of the examined scenario-models. The findings also showed that the maximum temperature at study stations will be increased between 1°C and 2°C in the middle and the end of 21st century. Also this maximum temperature changes is more severe in the HADCM3 model than the CGCM3 model.