Comparison Fuzzy Time Series Cheng and Ruey Chyn Tsaur Model for Forecasting Sales at Empat Saudara Store

Abstract

Trading business is a type of business that focuses on buying goods and reselling them with the aim of making a profit without making changes to the condition of the goods being sold. The problem that often occurs at the Empat Saudara Store is excess or deficiency in the stock of goods owned, where consumer demand is high but goods are insufficient and consumer demand is low but goods are available. One effort to overcome these problems is to make stable sales happen by forecasting to find out future sales. Forecasting is an activity that aims to estimate or predict what will happen in the future by using historical data from the past. The research method used is Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) because this method's forecasting system is to capture patterns from past data and then use it to project future data based on linguistic values. FTS models used are FTS Cheng and FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur. The five-period forecasting results for FTS Cheng are 200,668.2 , 171,761.5 , 222,412.6 , 214,507.4 , 216,294.3 and for the FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur model are 198,600 , 229,094.2 , 202,203.05, 230,804.80 ,6. With a MAPE value of the FTS Cheng model of 9.904% and a MAPE value of the FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur model of 14.01%. From the forecasting results it can be concluded that the FTS Cheng model is better than the FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur model in predicting sales at the Empat Saudara Store.