Abstract
Online publishers sell opportunities to show ads. Some advertisers pay only if their ad elicits a user response. Publishers estimate response rates for ads in order to estimate expected revenues from showing the ads. Then publishers select ads that maximize estimated expected revenue. By taking a maximum among estimates, publishers inadvertently select ads based on a combination of actual expected revenue and inaccurate estimation of expected revenue. Publishers can increase actual expected revenue by selecting ads to maximize a combination of estimated expected revenue and estimation accuracy.
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