Comparing Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Models for Landslide Susceptibility in the Dharan Sub-Metropolitan Region of Eastern Nepal

Abstract

This study compares the application of Frequency Ratio (FR) (statistical/quantitative) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (heuristic/semi-quantitative) for landslide susceptibility analysis in Dharan Sub-Metropolitan Region of eastern Nepal. Nine different thematic layers including slope, aspect, curvature, geology, land use, distance to roads, distance to thrusts, topographic position index (TPI), and distance to streams were used for analysis. A landslide inventory map was prepared by identifying the landslides in recent Google Earth images, and it was then verified by field observations. The resulting susceptibility map with different susceptibility levels was validated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) method, and the resulting AUC values were determined to be 78% for FR and 76.8% for AHP. Both methods offer a reliable strategy for landslide susceptibility mapping with a good prediction rate. The FR model enclosed 41%, 31%, 20%, 7% and 1% of the area as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility, respectively, whereas AHP showed 21%, 24%, 27%, 21% and 7% of the area for the respective susceptibility levels. The specific zones identified within the range from very low to very high susceptibility provide valuable insights for local authorities, planners, and decision-makers, allowing them to identify areas susceptible to landslides and implement mitigation measures to aid in targeted risk management efforts.