Abstract
The present analysis illustrates how energy system models can play an important role in the long-term evaluation of support schemes for renewable electricity. Methodological approaches for the explicit representation of such instruments are presented both for price-based and quantity-based systems. In the subsequent scenario comparison, the current German feed-in tariffs (FIT) are contrasted with several alternative support mechanisms. With the current scheme, renewable generation is increased to almost 46% of gross electricity consumption in 2020 and 54% in 2030 associated with a rise in the surcharge on consumer electricity prices of 40% between 2011 and 2020. By switching to a technology–neutral certificate system which promotes only the most cost-efficient generation and adheres to the political targets renewable generation costs could be lowered by more than €200 billion between 2013 and 2030. At the same time, it has to be kept in mind that technology–neutral systems tend to cause a higher cost burden for electricity consumers. The greatest cost reduction can be achieved under a technology-specific quantity-based system with a decrease in cumulated FIT differential costs of €68 billion and of €416 billion in total energy system costs between 2013 and 2030 compared to the current system.
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