Comparing Automated Cluster Detection Methods for Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE): Rule-Based Versus Statistical

Abstract

Background: The Tennessee (TN) Department of Health (TDH) has been identifying clusters of reportable conditions using the Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-Based Epidemics (ESSENCE), a cluster detection method using space-time scan permutation statistics based on patient ZIP code. CRE are reportable in Tennessee; isolate submission is required for carbapenemase (CP) production and resistance mechanism (eg, KPC gene) testing. The Council for Outbreak Response: Healthcare-Associated Infections (HAI) and Antimicrobial-Resistant (AR) Pathogens (CORHA) released proposed thresholds of reporting CRE to public health. Thresholds vary by healthcare facility type and regional epidemiology. The TDH HAI/AR program currently runs a daily automated SAS code using the CORHA reporting threshold to help public health identify suspect KPC clusters. We evaluated our rule-based CORHA method against 2 space-time statistic-based methods for KPC cluster detection in Tennessee. Methods: Simulations for each cluster detection method were performed using retrospective CP-CRE surveillance data for 2018. Simulations were conducted using (1) CORHA reporting thresholds by facility case count to flag clusters of 2 or more cases within 28 days, (2) ESSENCE using patient residence ZIP code and the earliest of collection date or symptom onset date as is used for other reportable conditions in Tennessee, and (3) a modified space-time statistical method using SaTScan in which reporting facility, rather than a geographic location, was used as space variable to detect within-facility clusters within 1–28 days. We compared the number and overlap of cases and clusters identified with each method. Univariate logistic regression with CORHA flagging as predictor and flagging by each ESSENCE or CORHA method as outcome variables, were used to compare cases tagged by each method pair, respectively. Results: Of 183 KPC CP-CRE cases, 54 (30.6%) were flagged as part of suspect clusters by at least 1 method. Simulations generated 16 alerts (36 cases) using CORHA, 10 clusters (25 cases) using modified SaTScan, and 10 clusters (20 cases) using standard ESSENCE protocol. Among KPC CP-CRE cases flagged by CORHA, 12 (33.3%) were also flagged by modified SaTScan and 2 (5%) by ESSENCE. A case flagged using CORHA method has 5.15 (95% CI, 2.10–12.64) times higher odds of also being flagged by the modified SaTScan method compared to cases not flagged by CORHA. Conclusions: An algorithm based on CORHA thresholds for reporting CRE to public health had strong agreement with modified SaTScan, a space-time method. We intend to explore the extension of the time interval for ESSENCE.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None