Abstract
Weather characteristics have been suggested by many social scientists to influence criminality. According to a recent study, climate change may cause a substantial increase in criminal activities during the twenty-first century. The additional number of crimes due to climate have been estimated by associational models, which are not optimal to quantify causal impacts of weather conditions on criminality. Using the Rubin Causal Model and crime data reported daily between 2012 and 2017, this study examines whether changes in heat index, a proxy for apparent temperature, and rainfall occurrence, influence the number of violent crimes in Boston. On average, more crimes are reported on temperate days compared to extremely cold days, and on dry days compared to rainy days. However, no significant differences in the number of crimes between extremely hot days versus less warm days could be observed. The results suggest that weather forecasts could be integrated into crime prevention programs in Boston. The weather-crime relationship should be taken into account when assessing the economic, sociological, or medical impact of climate change. Researchers and policy makers interested in the effects of environmental exposures or policy interventions on crime should consider a causal inference approach to analyze their data.
Highlights
For approximately four decades, criminologists have been interested in the weather–crime relationship (Bell and Baron, 1975; Cohen and Felson, 1979; DeFronzo, 1984; Harries et al, 1984; Anderson et al, 1995; Cohn and Rotton, 1997; Mares, 2013a)
In the Negative, Mild, and High heat index hypothetical experiments, the estimates of the average exposure effect (AEE) and their 95% posterior interval are: (1) 1.75 [0.34; 3.17], (2) 1.88 [1.10; 2.66] and (3) 2.19 [−0.36; 4.77], respectively. These results suggest that on average more violent crimes occur in Boston during very cold days (−4 < HI < 0 °C) compared to extremely cold days (HI ≤ −4 °C), and during temperate days (12 < HI < 24 °C) compared to cold days (0 < HI ≤ 12 °C)
The hypothetical experiment focusing on the estimation of the AEE of the occurrence of rainfall suggests that compared to dry days, the average daily violent crimes count decreases by 1.37 (95% posterior interval: [−1.94; −0.79]) during rainy days
Summary
Criminologists have been interested in the weather–crime relationship (Bell and Baron, 1975; Cohen and Felson, 1979; DeFronzo, 1984; Harries et al, 1984; Anderson et al, 1995; Cohn and Rotton, 1997; Mares, 2013a). The heat-aggression theory argues that changes in temperature affect crimes by increasing irritability and anger. Other authors argued for a positive linear relationship between temperature and aggressive behavior (Anderson et al, 1995; Bushman et al, 2005). Criminologists have extensively inspected the relationship between neighborhood conditions and crimes, they generally agree on the existence of a geographic component in levels of violence and criminal behavior (Sampson, 1997). The geographic differences in the weather–crime relationship are well explained by Harries et al (1984), and more recently by Mares (2013b), who suggest higher violence rates in disadvantaged neighborhoods when climatic conditions are warmer
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