Abstract
Population aging and its consequences are an extremely controversial issue in the global context. An increase in the number of older people along with a decrease in the birth rate leads to an excessive burden on the economically active part of the population. Such imbalances threaten to reduce the workforce, slow economic growth, increase social spending, increase the fiscal burden. Therefore, using the country’s own experience to solve the problem of rapid aging of the nation and take measures to improve the quality of life of older people and their social integration into society is insufficient, as changes in the age structure of the population may occur for the first time. Therefore, it is necessary to study and adapt the experience of other countries to address this social issue. The purpose of this study was to conduct a comparative analysis of the aging population in Iran and Poland, as well as to assess the impact of the nation’s aging on life expectancy, fertility and gross domestic product (GDP) in these two countries. The object of the study is Poland as a representative of European countries, which is facing an increase in the number of elderly people, and Iran as a country where the age structure of the population is just beginning to change. The study period is 1950-2020. The results of the study show that there has been an increase in the elderly population, but the share of this population compared to other countries is lower. The authors of the study proved the existence of significant differences in the aging population in Poland and Iran. A feature of the demographic situation in Iran is the declining birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the total population and an increase in the proportion of elderly people. These socio-demographic transformations in the long run can have a destructive effect on Iran’s GDP. In contrast to Iran, Poland is experiencing an increase in population aging, leading to rising spending on social security and protection, as well as falling GDP. The rapid growth of the elderly population compared to the growth of the total population of the country and the increase in the share of elderly people in the coming years emphasizes the need for further planning of control over the problems associated with this population group.
Highlights
Aging become a dilemma in most of the developed countries that are known as “population aging”
The trends in population aging have increased in European countries, which is a serious challenge for economic growth and income convergence in Europe, and some prospective aging measures which move beyond chronological age and include changes in life expectancy, could better express the experience of recent long-term growth in European economics (Cuaresma et al, 2014)
Taking into account the aforementioned points, it can be realized that the population of Iran was at the beginning of the aging phase, while the population of Poland was in the aging phase and it has been about two decades since this country entered the aging period
Summary
Aging become a dilemma in most of the developed countries that are known as “population aging”. The trends in population aging have increased in European countries, which is a serious challenge for economic growth and income convergence in Europe, and some prospective aging measures which move beyond chronological age and include changes in life expectancy, could better express the experience of recent long-term growth in European economics (Cuaresma et al, 2014). “According to data from World Population Prospects: the 2019 Revision, by 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16%), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9%). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050” (UN, 2020)
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