Abstract

Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is a useful tool to estimate the probability of landslide occurrence, providing a scientific basis for natural hazards prevention, land use planning, and economic development in landslide-prone areas. To date, a large number of machine learning methods have been applied to LSM, and recently the advanced convolutional neural network (CNN) has been gradually adopted to enhance the prediction accuracy of LSM. The objective of this study is to introduce a CNN-based model in LSM and systematically compare its overall performance with the conventional machine learning models of random forest, logistic regression, and support vector machine. Herein, we selected Zhangzha Town in Sichuan Province, China, and Lantau Island in Hong Kong, China, as the study areas. Each landslide inventory and corresponding predisposing factors were stacked to form spatial datasets for LSM. The receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve (AUC), and several statistical metrics, such as accuracy, root mean square error, Kappa coefficient, sensitivity, and specificity, were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Finally, the trained models were calculated, and the landslide susceptibility zones were mapped. Results suggest that both CNN and conventional machine learning-based models have a satisfactory performance. The CNN-based model exhibits an excellent prediction capability and achieves the highest performance but also significantly reduces the salt-of-pepper effect, which indicates its great potential for application to LSM.

Highlights

  • The objective of this study is to introduce a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model in Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) and systematically compare its overall performance with the conventional machine learning models of random forest, logistic regression, and support vector machine in two typical study areas constrained by the external environment

  • It can be seen that, in the area of Zhangzha Town, the area under the curve (AUC) values vary from 84.65% to 91.23%, and the CNN-based model achieves the highest values (91.23%), followed by random forest (RF) (89.92%), logistic regression (LR) (85.59%), and support vector machines (SVM) (84.65%)

  • This work compared and analyzed the performance of the CNN-based model and conventional machine learning (ML) models for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in two typical areas, Zhangzha Town and Lantau Island, as study areas that suffer from catastrophe earthquakes and heavy rainfall, respectively

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Summary

Introduction

Landslides are one of the most serious hazards and are driven by geomorphology, geology, hydrology, and human activities [1]. Earthquake, and anthropogenic activities can directly trigger catastrophic landslides. A review by Rawshan et al [2] mentioned that more intense landslides would happen under the background of the increasingly extreme weather events associated with climate change. When a large landslide occurs, substantial casualties and infrastructure destruction can be caused. The prediction and management of landslides are necessary to prevent and mitigate the losses caused by such a hazard. Due to the lack of reliable precursory data, it is generally difficult to predict landslides in real-time at a good precision, i.e., forecasting their time, Remote Sens.

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