Comparative analysis on the performances of implementing compulsory and advocative policies in municipal solid waste classification

Abstract

China, the world's second largest economy, has been facing a growing municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal problem. How to choose and implement the MSW classification policy in line with China's national conditions is very important to alleviate the predicament of MSW. However, the existing literature has not comprehensively and systematically compared the impact of compulsory and advocative policies on the effectiveness of MSW classification. To this end, Polynomial Distributed Lag (PDL) model is established to compare and predict the overall implementation effects of the two types of policies on front-end classification, mid-end transportation and terminal-end processing and treatment. The empirical investigation applies PDL model and takes Shanghai and Tianjin cities as case studies to forecast MSW policy performance in 2021–2025. The results show that the implementation performance of the compulsory MSW classification policy is generally better than the advocative policy, which is manifested in the speed of policy advancement, the classification rate and growth rate of various types of MSW, the utilization rate of MSW recycling and the economic benefits. However, in terms of mid-end clearance and transportation efficiency and facility construction, advocative policy appears to perform better than compulsory policy. The overall compliance rate of MSW classification in Shanghai increased from 28% to 77%, while that in Tianjin increased from 9% to 15%. By 2025, the amount of recyclable waste in Shanghai will account for 76.9% of the total MSW classification, which is more than five times higher than the advocative policy. Shanghai's annual output value of converting recyclable waste into various renewable resources or products through resource production can reach 227.613 billion or even to 341.368 billion yuan, far exceeding Tianjin's. Based on these findings, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing the policy system of MSW classification. This study provides empirical examples of China based on real data evidence and contributes to the literature on environmental science and MSW classification policy.