Comparative analysis of material damage from the occurrence of risky events at industrial enterprises and costs on preventive measures (on the example of the regions of the Volga Federal District)

Abstract

The article examines the indicators of material damage from the occurrence of man-made emergencies at industrial enterprises of the Russian Federation, indicators of the costs of preventive measures in the Russian Federation. The forecast of a time series with an oscillatory component of material damage from the occurrence of man-made emergencies at industrial enterprises has been carried out. The probability of occurrence of a risk event at the enterprise is calculated based on data on the number of man-made emergencies and the number of enterprises in the region. To assess the impact of the values of indicators of material damage from the occurrence of man-made emergencies at industrial enterprises, as well as indicators of the costs of preventive measures for each subject of the Volga Federal District on the size of this indicator throughout the Federal District, a regression analysis was carried out. Based on it, a model has been developed for the PFD of the relationship of material damage from the occurrence of man-made emergencies and the costs of preventive measures. As a result of the analysis of the components included in the model, it was revealed that the indicators of the costs of preventive measures for the occurrence of man-made emergencies in the Volga Federal District are most influenced by the indicators of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan and the Orenburg region. The indicators of the Republics of Mordovia, Tatarstan, as well as the Nizhny Novgorod and Orenburg regions have the greatest impact on the indicator of material damage from the occurrence of man-made emergencies in the Volga Federal District.