Comparative Analysis of Frailty Scores for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients: Insights from the United States National Inpatient Sample.

Abstract

The aim of the current investigation was to compare the ability of several frailty scores to predict adverse outcomes in hip fracture patients. All adult patients (18 years or older) who suffered a hip fracture due to a fall and underwent surgical fixation were extracted from the 2019 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) Database. A combination of logistic regression and bootstrapping was used to compare the predictive ability of the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the 11-factor modified Frailty Index (11-mFI) and 5-factor (5-mFI) modified Frailty Index, as well as the Johns Hopkins Frailty Indicator. A total of 227,850 patients were extracted from the NIS. In the prediction of in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue (FTR), the OFS surpassed all other frailty measures, approaching an acceptable predictive ability for mortality [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.67-0.72)] and achieving an acceptable predictive ability for FTR [AUC (95% CI): 0.70 (0.67-0.72)]. The NHFS demonstrated the highest predictive ability for predicting any complication [AUC (95% CI): 0.62 (0.62-0.63)]. The 11-mFI exhibited the highest predictive ability for cardiovascular complications [AUC (95% CI): 0.66 (0.64-0.67)] and the NHFS achieved the highest predictive ability for delirium [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.68-0.70)]. No score succeeded in effectively predicting venous thromboembolism or infections. In summary, the investigated frailty scores were most effective in predicting in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue; however, they struggled to predict complications.