Abstract

The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

Highlights

  • Drought is a transitory climatological anomaly characterized by below-normal precipitation during an extended period [1,2]

  • A meteorological drought over an extended period of time can develop into an agricultural drought, which is characterized by a decrease in soil humidity over a prolonged time interval [7,8,9]

  • The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó basins (TDPS system)

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Summary

Introduction

Drought is a transitory climatological anomaly characterized by below-normal precipitation during an extended period [1,2]. Drought affects the precipitation regime, hydrological cycle, and socioeconomic systems associated with hydrological conditions [3]. These impacts can be differentiated by their time properties. A hydrological drought, characterized by a decrease in streamflow or reduced aquifer recharge [4,5,6], could follow a meteorological drought through the hydrological cycle. A meteorological drought over an extended period of time can develop into an agricultural drought, which is characterized by a decrease in soil humidity over a prolonged time interval [7,8,9]. Dry spells can affect rain-fed agriculture even during the wet season in the Andes [10]

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