Comparative Analysis and Assessment of Artic Sea Ice: Predictions from CMIP6 Models Amid Global Climate Change

Abstract

Amid global climate change urgency, accurate model predictions are paramount for informed interventions. However, the disparity among prediction models highlights a pressing research gap requiring a deeper and more comprehensive comparison of the differences and consistency of the different models in climate change prediction. This research undertook a comprehensive analysis of 18 CMIP-6 models, aiming to provide a comprehensive comparison and cohesive prediction of ice mass and ice area from 1960 to 2050. The models consistently forecast a substantial decline in Arctic ice coverage and volume. Without marked reductions in carbon emissions, Arctic glaciers are projected to vanish entirely by the close of the century. Furthermore, the correlation analysis results indicate that there is a significant interdependence between sea ice area and sea ice mass was observed, with Pearson R2 approximately 0.908. Notably, models varied regarding the precise year of the Arctic's complete ice loss, spotlighting the inherent uncertainties of current predictions and the pressing need for mitigation measures. The study illuminates the pressing urgency for a globally coordinated response to carbon emissions and serves as a clarion call for enhanced research into the intricacies of climate change and glacier melting processes to refine future predictions.