Abstract
The urban economic growth and suburbanization had increased the number of suburban commuters using rail transit in the Osaka metropolitan area for 40 years since the 1950s. This trend reversed to continuous shrinkage in the 1990s. The reduction in passengers may lead to financial problems for the operators and an increase in railway fares or decline in quality of service. This study investigates the factors responsible for the decline in demand for rail service by analyzing changes in population and commuters using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and small area statistics linked with locations of urban rail networks. The results indicate that the dispersion of jobs from 1990 to 2000 significantly reduced commutes by rail. Demographic analysis shows that because of low fertility rates and the rapidly aging population the decline in the number of commuters will intensify in coming decades, causing serious financial problems for railway operators.
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