Community risk perception for flood management: A structural equation modelling approach

Abstract

The importance of considering risk perception for the support of flood risk management is widely recognised. Therefore, evaluating citizens' risk perception is essential to understand the elements belonging to the social sphere that can affect the increase of risk. This knowledge can support policy makers and disaster managers in establishing more effective management strategies, priority setting, resource allocation and prevention activities. The presence of urban areas exposed to flood risks poses complex decision-making problems for the planning and management of future organisations of local territories and communities.This work provides an assessment of citizens' perception of flood risk through the construction of a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to identify useful elements to support flood management in a new type of vulnerable areas which have 'episodic streams’ called lame. This was achieved by investigating the citizens’ risk perception and knowledge in the city of Bari. The data was collected using a online survey. Based on the data from 752 respondents, our modelling results provide insights and suggestions to support flood management decision-making as they highlight the heterogeneity of the sample involved, bringing out the categories of citizens most exposed to risk, to which specific measures can be addressed.