Common and idiosyncratic conditional volatility: Theory and empirical evidence from electricity prices

Abstract

. We propose and develop a robust score-driven multiplicative dynamic factor model for the conditional volatility of electricity prices. This model allows us to identify both common and idiosyncratic conditional volatility factors in the spot price of electricity across key Nord Pool European markets. Both factors are extracted using a single observation-driven filter that is simple and parsimonious. The common factor is robust by construction as it averages information over the cross-section of the high-dimensional vector of electricity price changes. The idiosyncratic factors are designed to capture the erratic shocks in prices and therefore rely on a robust updating equation which allows for outliers and fat-tailed innovations. Our model is suitable for high-dimensional applications and does not necessarily suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The parsimonious nature of the observation-driven filter leads to simple computations for the estimation of parameters and the signal extraction of factors. We derive the stochastic properties of the filter and its underlying factor model, including bounded moments, stationarity, ergodicity, and filter invertibility. We further establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. The finite sample properties of the estimator and the filter are explored in a Monte Carlo study. Finally, we apply our model and filter to the Nord Pool spot price data and find evidence that net-import and net-export electricity markets exhibit substantially different common and idiosyncratic volatilities. In particular, we confirm that net-import markets are considerably more exposed to cross-market volatility spillovers, and we quantify the relevant degree of exposition.