Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Cassia M.G Lemos,Ricardo R Rodrigues,Pedro R Andrade,Leticia Hissa,Ana P D Aguiar

doi:10.1007/s10113-021-01792-0

Abstract

To achieve regional and international large-scale restoration goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration potential for a given area based on alternative sets of biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the use of a land change allocation model to explore the cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Biome, the Paraiba Valley in São Paulo State. Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used to support the regional-level decision-making about the implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more refined analysis (e.g., optimization models).

Highlights

Forest restoration is crucial to reverse the impacts of historical deforestation, safeguarding biodiversity and an adequate provision of ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation, and adaptation (IPBES 2019)
Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is very low, as the estimated maximum biophysical capacity (MBC) varies from 0 to 0.50 in the study area
The implementation of large-scale restoration commitments is a key challenge of our times

Summary

Introduction

Forest restoration is crucial to reverse the impacts of historical deforestation, safeguarding biodiversity and an adequate provision of ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation, and adaptation (IPBES 2019). Examples of restoration commitments are the Bonn Challenge. Reg Environ Change (2021) 21: 68 and the New York Declaration that are worldwide efforts to restore 150 million hectares (Mha) of degraded and deforested lands by 2020 and 350 Mha by 2030, respectively (Lewis et al 2019). Brazil voluntarily committed to restore 12 Mha of forests by 2030 for multiple uses, as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as it is one of the goals of the Brazil’s National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (Brancalion et al 2019). The Pact pledged to contribute with 1 Mha to the 2020 Bonn Challenge. Around 700,000 ha has been achieved from 2011 to 2015 (Crouzeilles et al 2019)

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