Combining passive acoustic monitoring and species distribution models to monitor species responses to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species worldwide, even in pristine and protected areas. Therefore, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models to document shifts in bird and frog distributions along an elevational gradient. In addition, we used acoustic data from 674 sites from Puerto Rico's main island to create species distribution models based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas. Our results suggest that species are shifting toward high-elevation areas. We also showed that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird distribution across the entire island. In addition, a large portion of always-suitable areas for birds is outside of protected areas (>75%), indicating that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird species under climate change. We must be creative and proactive in protecting species in climate change scenarios.