Abstract
The 1888 Ritter Island volcanic sector collapse triggered a regionally damaging tsunami. Historic eyewitness accounts allow the reconstruction of the arrival time, phase and height of the tsunami wave at multiple locations around the coast of New Guinea and New Britain. 3D seismic interpretations and sedimentological analyses indicate that the catastrophic collapse of Ritter Island was preceded by a phase of deep-seated gradual spreading within the volcanic edifice and accompanied by a submarine explosive eruption, as the volcanic conduit was cut beneath sea level. However, the potential impact of the deep-seated deformation and the explosive eruption on tsunami genesis is unclear. For the first time, it is possible to parameterise the different components of the Ritter Island collapse with 3D seismic data, and thereby test their relative contributions to the tsunami. The modelled tsunami arrival times and heights are in good agreement with the historic eyewitness accounts. Our simulations reveal that the tsunami was primarily controlled by the displacement of the water column by the collapsing cone at the subaerial-submarine boundary and that the submerged fraction of the slide mass and its mobility had only a minor effect on tsunami genesis. This indicates that the total slide volume, when incorporating the deep-seated deforming mass, is not directly scalable for the resulting tsunami height. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tsunamigenic impact of the explosive eruption energy during the Ritter Island collapse was only minor. However, this relationship may be different for other volcanogenic tsunami events with smaller slide volumes or larger magnitude eruptions, and should not be neglected in tsunami simulations and hazard assessment.
Highlights
On December 22, 2018, parts of the southwestern flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed and triggered a tsunami, which killed over 400 people on both sides of the Sunda Strait (Grilli et al 2019; Gouhier and Paris 2019; Williams et al 2019)
We evaluate the impact of a potential explosive eruption during the collapse on tsunami genesis
The landslide simulations for the “shallow slide plane scenario” resulted in the disintegration of Ritter Island’s volcanic cone (Fig. 4)
Summary
On December 22, 2018, parts of the southwestern flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed and triggered a tsunami, which killed over 400 people on both sides of the Sunda Strait (Grilli et al 2019; Gouhier and Paris 2019; Williams et al 2019). Anak Krakatau (Giachetti et al 2012), there were no recognised precursors to the failure of the volcano’s flank in 2018, and tsunami waves struck the coastal population without warning. This event emphasises the significant tsunami hazard associated with volcanic sector collapses, as well as the challenges in both forecasting sector collapses and in developing mitigation strategies against resultant tsunami hazards. Historic volcanic sector collapses have had volumes between 0.02 and 4 k m3 (Day 2015). Hydroacoustic mapping offshore the Canary Islands has revealed several sector collapse deposits with volumes between 100 and 350 km; while the Nuuanu landslide offshore Hawaii represents the largest known mass flow event on Earth, with a volume of ~ 5000 km
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