Abstract

Water stress conditions associated with population growth, climate change, and groundwater contamination, represent a significant challenge for all stakeholders in the water sector. Increasing the resilience of Water Supply Systems (WSSs) becomes of fundamental importance: along with an adequate level of service, sustainability targets must be ensured. A long-term management strategy is strictly connected to a holistic approach, based on analyses at different scales. To this end, both groundwater modeling tools and water management models, with different spatial and temporal scales, are routinely and independently employed. Here, we propose a coupled approach combining: i) groundwater models (MODFLOW) to investigate different stress scenarios, involving climate change and anthropic activities; ii) water management models (Aquator), to assess the water resources availability and the best long-term management strategy for large-scale WSS. The management models are implemented starting from input and output flows derived by groundwater models: this leads to establish a comprehensive framework usually not defined in management models and including a quantitative characterization of the aquifer. The proposed methodology, general and applicable to any study area, is here implemented to the WSS of Reggio Emilia Province, and its main groundwater resource, the Enza aquifer, considering three different stress scenarios for groundwater models (BAU, ST1, and ST2), and for management strategies (BAU, BAURV2, ST2). Among the key results, we observe that coupling the two model types: i) allows evaluating water resources availability in connection with management rules; ii) leads to examining more realistic operation choices; iii) permits planning of infrastructures at basin scale.

Highlights

  • Groundwater is the most exploited water resource worldwide for drinking water, irrigation and industrial purposes

  • The methodology applied in this study combines two different types of analyses: (i) groundwater models, to describe the hydrodynamic behavior of the main aquifer feeding the Water Supply Systems (WSSs), under different stress scenario; (ii) management optimization models, to characterize the WSS with a simplified schematization

  • The trend of the variables in the Business As Usual (BAU) model is shown in Fig. S18a−e, computed from the volumetric budget: recharge shows maximum values mainly in spring and autumn; stream leakage In, i.e. the influx of rivers into groundwater, is greater in winter and autumn; the effect of drains is minimal in spring and summer

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Summary

Introduction

Groundwater is the most exploited water resource worldwide for drinking water, irrigation and industrial purposes. The increase in water demand in urban areas, together with a limited availability, poses a considerable challenge for water companies Together with these factors, population growth, climate change and contamination of water resources contribute to increasing water stress, both locally and globally (IPCC 2014). Climate change effects on groundwater are a major concern, since hydrogeological processes may be directly and indirectly affected. Several studies showed that this still represents an open chapter (Mehrazar et al 2020; Amanambu et al 2020), suggesting the need for a deeper comprehension of the complex physical processes and interactions between climate and groundwater. Freshwater resources are vulnerable and can be strongly influenced by climate change, with wideranging consequences for societies and ecosystems (Kundzewicz et al 2007)

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