Cointegration Relationship of Regional Integrated Transport Demand and Industrial Structure

Abstract

In order to reveal the connection between regional integrated transport demand and industrial structure, the paper adopts the cointegration theory to analyze the interaction of freight and passenger traffic volume and the value of primary, secondary and tertiary industry in Shanghai. The result reveals that there exists long-term equilibrium relationship respectively between freight/passenger traffic volume and the value of secondary/tertiary industry. The development of primary industry does not account for the increase of either passenger transport demand or freight transport demand. Using freight traffic volume per gross domestic product (GDP) to forecast freight transport demand is no longer suitable for industry developing direction nowadays. The freight traffic volume Granger causes tertiary industry and the tertiary industry Granger causes passenger traffic volume in the 10% confidence level. Meanwhile, the short-term elasticity of passenger volume logarithm due to tertiary industry logarithm is 1.15 while the long-term elasticity is 0.41. Thus, it is reasonable to predict passenger transport demand using passenger traffic volume per tertiary industry value. Passenger traffic volume and tertiary industry has a bidirectional causal relationship in the 25% confidence level. However, the promotion of tertiary industry to passenger transport demand is stronger than that of the latter to the former. It means that the modest leading development of transport systems would be helpful for the economic development and the structural adjustment of industry in China.