Cohabitation and Policymaking Efficiency: An Empirical Test

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In Chapter 3, I presented a qualitative account of three periods of cohabitation under the French Fifth Republic. This analysis provided strong empirical support for the model I presented in Chapter 2. Some cohabitationist prime ministers, like Prime Minister Balladur or Jospin, were seen as likely winners of the next presidential contest. Their respective parties had significant support in opinion polls and in local and European elections. All these signals indicated that the majority was likely to remain in power after the next legislative election cycle and that it was likely to capture the presidency. Hence, the premiers were not pressured to pursue an active legislative agenda and could engage in legislative restraint. Conversely, Premier Chirac was, from the start of his tenure as prime minister, contested as the best conservative candidate for the next presidential contest. His coalition received less support in opinion polls than the opposition. In this context, his slim two-member majority would be hard to maintain — or even extend – in the next legislative electoral cycle, and the conservatives seemed unlikely to remain in power for more than the two years preceding the next presidential elections. Pressured by his majority to act, Chirac was compelled to produce large-scale reforms.