Abstract
By 1995, Ireland’s wild grey partridge (Perdix perdix) was extinct nationally as a breeding species on farmland. The two populations remaining were confined to Ireland’s industrial cutaway peat bogs. One of these populations was deemed viable. In 1996, the National Parks and Wildlife Service of Ireland and the Irish Grey Partridge Conservation Trust established a conservation project to prevent the extirpation of this population. In this paper, we explore the impact of each management factor on two key demographic response variables: chick survival rates and the number of breeding pairs. The numbers of linear metres of nesting strips had the most significantly positive effect on spring pairs, followed by the total number of supplementary food hoppers and the total hectares of brood-rearing and over-winter cover. Counterintuitively, encounters with Hen Harriers (Circus cyaneus) did not negatively affect chick survival or the number of spring pairs. While we cannot rule out the contribution of each explanatory variable, none had a statistically significant effect on chick survival, suggesting there may be locally confounding factors that our model could not capture. The weather conditions during the peak hatching period had a significant influence on chick survival, with the average maximum temperature observed in June having the strongest positive association with an increase of 1 °C in the average maximum temperature in June associated with an increase in chick survival of 9.4% on average. Conversely, for every additional 1 mm of rain in June, there was a 0.23% drop in chick survival on average.
Highlights
Many European breeding bird populations are in decline (Inger et al 2015)
We explored the relationships between chick survival rates (CSRs) and each of the predator management, habitat management, provision of supplementary food hoppers, encounters with Hen Harriers and the weather variables by fitting univariate linear regression models with CSR as the response variable
Across Europe, the evidence suggests that shooting is the critical motivation driving the conservation actions for the grey partridge (Bro et al 2001; Aebischer and Ewald 2010; Ewald et al 2012; Potts 2012)
Summary
Many European breeding bird populations are in decline (Inger et al 2015). One of the primary drivers of this decline has been land-use change and agriculture (Donald et al 2001; Butler et al 2010). The grey partridge in Ireland is a resident breeding bird (Ussher and Warren 1900; Sharrock 1976; Potts 1980, 1986; Kavanagh 1992; Whilde 1993). Some of the earliest and most dramatic population declines of the grey partridge in Europe were in Ireland (Potts 1986). The contraction in the national population was severe enough to prompt a temporary withdrawal of all guns in 1918 and statutory protection in 1930 (Humphreys 1937; Kennedy et al 1954; Potts 1980). An increase was noted from 1933 onwards (Kennedy et al 1954), there is no indication as to the actual size of the population (Hearshaw 1996)
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