Coastal Zone Management in Response to Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: A Study from Hurst Spit to Lymington, South England

Abstract

This study examines the coastal region spanning from Hurst Spit to the mouth of the Lymington River along the Western Solent coast in Hampshire, South England. The area comprises critical habitats for international bird species on the seaward side and is protected by a seawall on the landward side. Rising sea levels pose a significant threat to this area, including habitat loss and potential seawall breaches. To address the uncertainty in sea level rise projections for the 21st century, this study utilises data processing in ArcGIS, including LiDAR data, tidal data, and sea level rise projections. It adopts contingency allowances for sea level rise, resulting in a projected 0.89 metre by 2100. Analysis reveals a significant transformation in habitat distribution, with standing water and mudflats expanding while salt marshes and dry land areas diminish. Salt marsh areas are projected to contract by 64.6%, with the pioneer salt marsh facing the greatest loss. The report recommends a proactive approach, including realigning the seawall in vulnerable areas, allowing for the creation of new salt marshes. This managed intervention strategy can reduce habitat loss to approximately 17.43%, mitigating the potential ecological and human habitat impacts of rising sea levels in that region.