Abstract
Wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves are known to buffer coastal communities from wave, flood, and structural loss during storms. Coastal communities and resource managers seek to understand the ecosystem service value of coastal wetlands for reducing storm-induced flood loss in a changing climate. A recent modeling study found that a tall and dense Phragmites-dominated Piermont Marsh reduced the flood loss in the Village of Piermont, New York, U.S.A. during Superstorm Sandy and the 1% annual chance flood and wave event by 8% and 11%, respectively. Here we used the same modeling approach to examine the marsh’s buffering capacity in a changing climate (from 2020 to 2100), considering a potential marsh restoration plan (from 2020 to 2025) and potential marsh loss due to sea-level rise. Results showed that from 2020 to 2100, the 1% annual chance flood, wave, and structural loss would increase due to sea-level rise, storms, and marsh loss. However, the marsh will buffer ~ 11–12% of structural loss until 2050. Under the extreme SLR scenario of 2.89 m and a low accretion rate, Piermont Marsh is expected to lose its buffering capacity by 2080–2100 but will retain some buffering capacity with a high accretion rate of 10 mm/year and marsh growth. The marsh’s buffering capacity will remain during extra-tropical storms during winter and spring unless the wind has a significant northerly component. Lessons learned from this study can be used by coastal communities and marsh managers to develop coastal resiliency and marsh restoration plan.
Highlights
Wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves are known to buffer coastal communities from wave, flood, and structural loss during storms
The reduction of storm-induced flood damage in New York City (NYC) by natural features varied geographically, and naturebased solutions to coastal flooding must be tailored to specific local conditions to be e ffective8. SHE21a6 and SHE21b7 found that the buffering capacity of coastal wetlands depends significantly on local wetland coverage and at-risk property value, as well as storm characteristics
We present the scenario-dependent marsh value in terms of several metrics: total structural loss (TSL, in USD based on 2017 taxed property values), relative structural loss (RSL, in % of total property value), total avoided loss (TAL, as the difference between loss without marsh and loss with marsh), relative avoided loss (RAL, as Total Avoided Loss (TAL) divided by the total property value), and unit marsh value (UMV, as TAL divided by the marsh area)
Summary
Wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves are known to buffer coastal communities from wave, flood, and structural loss during storms. A recent modeling study found that a tall and dense Phragmites-dominated Piermont Marsh reduced the flood loss in the Village of Piermont, New York, U.S.A. during Superstorm Sandy and the 1% annual chance flood and wave event by 8% and 11%, respectively. Lessons learned from this study can be used by coastal communities and marsh managers to develop coastal resiliency and marsh restoration plan Coastal wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves buffer coastal communities from wave, flood, and structural loss during tropical cyclones (TCs). During Superstorm Sandy, coastal wetlands along New Jersey (NJ), New York (NY), and Connecticut (CT) coasts (Fig. 1a) provided a modest reduction of structural loss in coastal c ommunities[1,3,6] due to the relatively sparse and low Spartina marsh and the high storm tide. Considering an ensemble of possible TCs9 for the NJ/ NY/CT coasts, they found that the buffering capacity of coastal wetlands in NJ/NY/CT coasts[6] and Piermont[7] were able to provide higher buffering capacity (measured by percent reduction of potential structural loss) during the 1% flood and wave event, than that during Sandy
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