Coastal Hazard Assessment in Northern part of Jakarta

Abstract

Coastal hazard assessment due to both periodic and non-periodic sea level rise (SLR) parameters in northern part of Jakarta is conducted to determine scenarios of oceanographic variability that could increase the potential hazard. Jakarta is the capital city of Indonesia where the northern part of Jakarta adjacent by the Java Sea. The area has highly developed infrastructures and facilities with high population density, causing the area to have big potential to be affected by the coastal hazard. Projection of the coastal hazard for year 2020, 2030 and 2040 due to sea level rise on various scenarios is conducted and presented into the coastal hazard maps. This research analyze the variation of sea level change based on the oceanographic parameters such as tidal behavioral, global sea level rise projection, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), storm surge, inland flood. Contribution of global sea level rise projection is about 0.84 cm/year while the maximum tidal height is 63 cm, La Niña variation is 14 cm, Indian Ocean Dipole mode 15 cm, Storm surge 38 cm, MJO 6 cm, inland flood 60 cm. Scenarios of coastal hazard based on the summation of various oceanographic parameters to determine the magnitudes and frequencies of potential coastal hazards. There are 15 hazard scenarios of sea level rise developed for selected time at 2020, 2030 and 2040. The extreme scenario for sea level rise above mean sea level is obtained when all of oceanographic parameters simultaneously occurred. The extreme sea level rise could reach 3.35 m in the year 2040. The coastal hazard maps are developed based on the height of sea level rise scenarios overlays with digital elevation model (DEM) using Geographic Information System (GIS).