Coastal adaptation to sea level rise along the Nile delta, Egypt

Abstract

Global warming and climate change processes are expected to raise sea levels. This paper represents a contribution to the efforts of investigating the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the Nile delta coastal zone and identifies anticipatory and adaptation measures that may be appropriate today in spite of current SLR uncertainties. SLR was calculated by applying the quadratic equation for 10-year intervals using 1980 as the base year. Despite large variation between SLR predictions, the results indicated that SLR is accelerating, with estimated value for the present (21st) century in the order of 0.6 m, although with a margin of as much as ±0.4 m. Local land subsidence in the Nile delta would exacerbate the impacts of rising seas. It was estimated that with a 1.0m SLR, about 4500 square kilometers representing 19% of the delta area will be submerged and that 6.1 million people will be affected. These potential impacts of SLR would be serious but manageable if appropriate actions are taken. The following adaptation measures to the impact of SLR in the Nile delta coastal zone were identified: maintaining and building coastal protection structures, restoration of sand dunes along the shore, preserving existing wetlands, setting regulations to control development in vulnerable areas, change of land use, relocation of infrastructures in the landward side, and development of comprehensive monitoring and early warning systems.