Abstract
The implementation of CO2 emission mitigation policies in cities is the key to China achieving its national emission mitigation targets. China is experiencing rapid urbanization and facing huge inequality in regional development and then shrinking cities generate. This study, for the first time, discusses long-term CO2 emission patterns of shrinking cities with comparisons of growing cities. 55 cities in Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta are selected as cases. We first categorize these cities into three groups of shrinking cities and three groups of growing cities with a population index. Each group’s emission patterns in terms of energy, employment and industry structures are then examined. We find that CO2 emissions in the rapidly shrinking group presented a continuously increasing trend, while the other five groups reached their emission peaks in 2011–2013. For slightly and moderately shrinking groups, CO2 emission mitigation was a positive sign but occurred with the decline of secondary industry, especially for resource-based or heavy manufacturing cities, such as Daqing and Anshan in Northeast China. In the case of three types of growing cities, cities were capable of mitigating CO2 emissions and maintaining economic growth. The slightly growing group was the optimal type among these six groups. Its CO2 emissions experienced a decline with an annual rate of −1.47% during 2013–2015, while the economy still soared (increased by 7.27% annually). New economic growth points should be fostered to mitigate further shrinkage and achieve sustainable development for shrinking cities. The cities’ categorization rules, research thinking, and results offered in this study could provide a reference for other cities or developing countries at similar industrialization/urbanization phases to abbreviate their path towards a low-carbon economy.
Highlights
China's urbanization and industrialization have grown rapidly in recent decades, which lead to a quick increase in the country’s CO2 emissions
Daqing, which has the largest oilfield in China, shifted from the Rapidly growing group (RGG) to the Slightly shrinking group (SSG) due to the problem of resource exhaustion [60]
To help policy-makers to implement CO2 emissions policies according to varied city types and promote sustainable development, this study analyzes long-term CO2 emission patterns under the framework of shrinking and growing cities, and discusses the reasons driving the patterns
Summary
China's urbanization and industrialization have grown rapidly in recent decades, which lead to a quick increase in the country’s CO2 emissions. Based on data from 93 countries from 1975 to 1996, Shi [18] found that global population growth is more than proportionally associated with an increase in CO2 emissions. Martinez-Fernandez et al [25] considered city shrinkage as a city, part of a city, an entire metropolitan area or a town that suffers from population outflow, economic decline, increasing unemployment and social problems as symptoms of a structural crisis. Long and Wu [31] followed the definition proposed by SCiRN and identified 40 shrinking cities in China based on national population censuses in 2000 and 2010. The cities’ categorization rules, research thinking and results offered in this study provide a reference to help other cities or even other developing countries at similar industrialization or urbanization phases to abbreviate their path towards a low-carbon economy
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