Abstract
About 75% energy demand and emissions all concentrate in urban areas, especially in the metropolises, placing a heavy burden on both the energy supply system and the environment system. To explore low emission pathways and provide policy recommendations for the Shanghai energy system and the environmental system to reach the carbon dioxide (CO2) peak by 2030 and attain emission reduction targets for local air pollutants (LAPs), a regional energy–environment optimization model was developed in this study, considering system costs, socio-economic development and technology. To verify the reliability of the model simulation and evaluate the model risk, a historical scenario was defined to calculate the emissions for 2004–2014, and the data were compared with the bottom-up emission inventory results. By considering four scenarios, we simulated the energy consumption and emissions in the period of 2020–2030 from the perspective of energy policies, economic measures and technology updates. We found that CO2 emissions might exceed the amount of 250 million tons by the end of 2020 under the current policy, and carbon tax with a price of 40 CNY per ton of carbon dioxide is an imperative measure to lower carbon emissions. Under the constraints, the emissions amount of SO2, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 will be reduced by 95.3–180.8, 207.8–357.1, 149.4–274.5, and 59.5–119.8 Kt in 2030, respectively.
Highlights
China has already surpassed the United States to top the list of countries in terms of energy consumption worldwide [1], with a total energy consumption amount of 4.83 billion tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 23.4% of global energy consumption in 2019 [1]
In order to evaluate the impact of policies on the energy and the environment systems at a regional level and find the most effective way to meet both the energy demands and emission control targets, we developed the Regional Energy–Environment System Optimization model (REESO model) to simulate the energy consumption and CO2 and local air pollutants (LAPs) emissions under various policy scenarios
The total energy consumption in Shanghai will increase over time in all four scenarios
Summary
China has already surpassed the United States to top the list of countries in terms of energy consumption worldwide [1], with a total energy consumption amount of 4.83 billion tons of coal equivalent (tce), accounting for 23.4% of global energy consumption in 2019 [1]. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1006 of economic impact [6] In response to these challenges faced during the process of urbanization, the Chinese government has included a series of energy conservation and emission reduction targets in the Outline of the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, starting from the. The economic center of China, has a large population of over 24 million, and consumes. The city is one of the regions that has the highest per capita carbon consumes the most energy in China. The city is one of the regions that has the highest per capita emissions level and energy consumption per capita GDP. In 2015, the total energy consumption in carbon emissions level and energy consumption per capita GDP. During the 10th Five-Year Plan period, the total energy consumption increased rapidly
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